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Horse Racing Handicapping Tips
Yuri Nikitin
Horse racing handicapping should include analyzing the human
element, especially in claiming races when a horse makes his
first start for a new trainer. It's quite common among novices
simply glance at a horse’s speed indexes and final times when
making their selections, but wise handicappers compare the
records of the current and previous trainer. The several
questions may arise: when is the right time to wager on a horse
in a new barn, why does a horse suddenly improve or regress for
a new trainer, what rules should we understand about a newly
claimed horse?
We must first analyze the record of the former conditioner
before we judge whether a trainer can improve his recently
claimed horse, for instance, if high-percentage trainer claims
a horse from a trainer with a poor winning percentage, we can
assume the horse will improve in his new surroundings, and if a
low-percentage trainer claims a horse from the track’s leading
trainer, we can conclude the animal won’t improve - more than
likely, he will regress.
Quite often, we are able to eliminate from consideration a
betting underlay when the horse goes from a high- to a
low-percentage barn. Indexes of a high recent speed horse for a
leading trainer often has declining figures for a new outfit.
This may result in betting overlay when a horse with dismal
recent form for a low-percentage trainer hooks up with leading
trainer in wins.
On the one hand, a claimed horse returned at or below its last
claimed price used to be considered a negative but with higher
purses nationally, a claimed horse can earn a sizable pot even
if he is returned at the level he was purchased. More trainers
are willing to risk possibly losing their newly claimed horse
for the same or even a slightly lesser price because they would
still earn a profit from the purse winnings.
It's easy to understand why some trainers are willing to run
their newly claimed horses at or below their claimed price -
they place their horses where they are most likely to win, and
even if another trainer claims one of their horses, they will
show a return on their investment if the horse wins or hits the
board.
Always consider jockey and equipment changes - a horse claimed
from a low percentage stable is likely to have a top rider for
his new barn, and a leading jockey on a newly claimed horse
would be a big improvement over his previous riders who might
have a low win percentage.
For a successful analysis of a newly claimed horse, we must
know as much about the new trainer as we do the horse.
Remember, handicapping the horse and trainer separates the
novice from the veteran.
About The Author: For further free horse racing betting and
handicapping tips and information, please, visit our site at
http://www.online-horse-races.com/
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